WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Democrats made gains in traditionally Republican territory Tuesday, flipping seats and narrowing margins in several districts across farm country.

But whether those victories represent a shift among farmers themselves remains an open question.

Drawing a direct correlation between Democratic gains and the farmer vote isn't yet supported by data. While pre-election polling offered some indication of farmers' declining support of Republicans and a less-than-motivated rural electorate, multiple demographics are at play.

Former Nebraska Sen. Mike Johanns, who also served as U.S. agriculture secretary, said he doesn't think two things changed: ranchers' loyalty to the Republican Party and their willingness to show up at the polls.

"It's in their DNA," he told DTN. "I just think they're good voters, not inclined to stay home on Election Day."

He believes rural communities did vote for Democratic candidates, but the populist vote among farmers remained relatively the same -- a vote for freedom, independence and not having a lot of government in their lifestyles, he explained.

Johanns is also waiting on final polling and analysis of the farmer vote but said he believes that in states hit by the blue wave, "There was a bit of a message sent."

Nebraska, on the other hand, was not fully splashed by the blue wave and reelected its Republican senator, Pete Ricketts, as well as Gov. Jim Pillen and Rep. Mike Flood.

COUNTIES WITH AN ANSWER

Some rural counties in Kansas and Iowa stood out for their Democratic vote.

Western Kansas' three most populous counties, each ranging from 20,000 to 40,000 residents, flipped blue in the Senate race.

Finney County showed up for President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, voting Republican by 35 points. The same was true for Ford County, by 38 points, and Seward County, by 39 points.

But on Tuesday, Hamilton carried all three counties: a 3-point Democratic margin in Finney, 1 point in Ford and 13 points in Seward.

One catalyst at play: disdain for immigration enforcement.

In October, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operation hit the meatpacking cities of Dodge City, Garden City/Holcomb and Liberal, Kansas, an area dubbed the "Golden Triangle," which accounts for more than 20% of daily fed-cattle slaughter in the nation.

Because of disruptions to those packing operations, USDA data shows 45,000 fewer cattle were slaughtered nationally that week than a week earlier, a drop of about 8.5%. Cattlemen's groups in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas criticized the sudden disruptions, saying they had a chilling effect on legal workers and disrupted the cattle supply chain.

For more, see "Kansas Governor: ICE Action Costs Beef Industry Millions, Sows Lasting Fear" here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Together with Trump's push to lower consumer beef prices and import foreign beef, the disruptions appear to have helped turn the very communities at the center of the beef supply chain against the president's agenda and Sen. Roger Marshall's support for it.

In Iowa, Pottawattamie and Winneshiek counties also showed up for Democrats after providing expected support for Trump in 2024. On Tuesday, Turek carried Pottawattamie County by 0.3 percentage point and Winneshiek County by 3 percentage points.

Pottawattamie County previously backed Trump by 20 points in 2024, while Winneshiek backed him by 9 points. But voters selected local candidates.

Tim Gannon, an Iowa native and former USDA official under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, is now a principal at Invariant's food and agriculture practice in Washington, D.C.

Gannon explained, "You could always win legislative races inside Council Bluffs, Iowa, but winning countywide was always a much more difficult thing to do for those top-of-the-ticket Democrats."

Turek calls Council Bluffs in Pottawattamie County home. Rob Sand, the newly elected governor of Iowa, calls Decorah, Iowa, in Winneshiek County home.

ANOTHER FACTOR

The shifts may also reflect changes among younger and Hispanic voters, groups that overlap with the rural electorate in many of the counties examined.

According to a New York Times analysis, Hispanic votes in House races gave Democrats a 40-point advantage, a 29-point shift from the 2024 election. Voters ages 19-29 voted 70% Democratic in House races.

Among voters ages 45 and older, the vote was more evenly split, with 52% voting Democratic and 47% Republican.

Even the most conservative education demographic, voters with a high school education or less, still voted 50% Democratic and 49% Republican. That represented a 19-point shift from 2024.

For more, see "Historic Midterm Win for Democrats, Flipping Senate and Governor Seats" here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

And for more election results, see "DTN's Election 2026 Quick Takes" here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Jake Zajkowski can be reached at jake.zajkowski@dtn.com

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